A Horse Racing System Based On A Statistical Approach To Selection And Staking

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Gamble Responsibly. Call Gambling Help www. You account does not have sufficient permission to view this page. Log in Sign up Log out. Staking — Level Staking. There are problems with the Kelly Criterion and other proportional staking systems, though. Problem One First, they require punters to be able to accurately assess the probability of something happening and compare this number to the odds they are getting. What Does This Mean? Betting Principles A staking plan or staking strategy is the method of defining how much of your bank you should be investing on a particular wager.

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Dealing with these problems To get around these two disadvantages, most punters adopting a level-staking strategy modify things somewhat. Read More. Follow us. Approved Sports Betting Partner of:. It is used in place of any missing figures e. This means that the horse was 1st in its last race and 3rd in the race before that. Because there is obviously no result for the race before that there wasn't one!

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At this point you will be in one of two positions EITHER all of the last three form figures for the horse are acceptable i. These last two are used to show where one season ends and the next starts and should be ignored. The other figures that can appear are letters e. It is simply that any finishing position past 4th is unplaced and therefore should be given a form figure of "0". However the newspapers like to give more details and so print the actual position the horse came in the race. We previously mentioned that you may come across characters as well as numbers in the form figures list.

watch This is normally found in the Jumps season as it show when a horse has fallen F been pulled up P brought down by another horse B etc. We will first describe the Alpha-forms that you are likely to come across in the Flat season and then we shall go into greater detail in the Jumps part of this section. If the answer is YES and the Alpha-form is a "P" for pulled up then check to see if any of the following rules apply.

Take the rules in the order printed and if you find one that applies replace the "P" as shown and then move on ignoring all following rules. Such characters as "F", "B" or "U" are rare accidents that are not representative of the horse's ability and can be ignored. In the jumps season there are many more mishaps that can happen to a horse and jockey that are due to the horse itself rather than any bad luck. Because of this you must treat each alpha-form in a slightly different way, although in a similar way to the flat season, you are trying to replace or promote the alpha-form to a position between 21" and 24" so that FORM MASTER will accept it.

What you do with the alpha-forms in the jumps season depends on how far through the race the horse managed to get before the mishap took place. If the horse did not complete at least two thirds then you should always regardless of circumstances, replace the alpha-form with "0" zero. Within the detailed form summary you will usually find a short description of where the horse was in the race when the accident occurred.

This description usually includes the fence number and the position of the horse in the field. If the answer is YES and the horse has completed enough of the race: treat the figure as described in flat season section above. In this case assume that the horse won by 30 lengths and promote the form figure to a "1". If the horse was placed in that previous race i. If the horse was unplaced in that previous race then promote the alpha-form to "4" and use the distance from the actual fourth horse in the race with the alpha-form.

In this case promote the alpha-form to this position and use the distances of the horse that actually finished in that position in the race. In this case promote to a "4" in all cases and use the beaten distances of the horse that actually finished fourth in that race. In this case assume a placing of "0" for the horse. For example the form figures may be there for the last three form figures are If the last race was excluded crossed off for one of the reason below then the last three form figures become ignore the "-".

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Look in the race details to see if the race in form figure three has the letters "wo" following it. If the new form figure three is now an alpha-form which cannot be promoted to a definite placing i. You should look in the form figures for a "d" or in the detailed form summary for a mention of a disqualification. If the answer is YES : change the form figure to what it would have be if the disqualification had not happened. For example, if a horse actually won a race but was then disqualified you should enter that form figure as "1" as if the disqualification had never happened.

You should do this in spite of the apparent conflict with the previous entries regarding wins and career win prize money. If a horse is 4th in a 4 horse race then it has finished last in that race so use a "0" instead of a "4" to complete its form. Sometimes, however, a horse may finish 3rd in a four horse race where only 3 horses finish because one has fallen or been pulled up particularly in the Jumps season.

In this case the original form figure remains unchanged because 4 horses started the race. Look at the type of races in the detailed form summary. Remember that BOTH races must be of this type. On the racing pages of most daily papers you will find reports on the days races which will usually carry news explaining why a horse performed as it did in its last race.

If the reason given is due to injury or bad luck the saddle slipping or something of that kind then the form is unreliable. If the answer is YES AND form figure two the second to last race is 1, 2, 3 or 4 then change the "0" in form figure three to a "4". The reason for this is that a horse may have only just missed being in the top four.

If it was 2 lengths on the Flat or 4 lengths over the Jumps of the fourth horse them we 'assume' that it could have caught up and so we promote it into 4th place and make the form figure "4". Sometimes you will find that although a horse has clear form figures, details on the races are not always present.

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Remember, anything can happen in a horse race, no matter how meticulously an animal is prepared to land a race, that horse can be badly drawn, it can be going for a gap when it closes and effectively ends it's challenge, thejockey can simply fall offi Anything can, and frequently does, happen to prevent a well prepared horse from winning its target race. Also, horses that have yet to race in the current season receive 35 points irrespective of their final finish of the previous season. If there is still a tie, select the race with the most prize money. Do not bet Sellers or Claimer Races. Excellent profits are indeed attained by level stakes, but do feel at liberty to use you own staking system if you so wish. To illustrate the whole procedure I will demonstrate using the weekend cards for Saturday, March 7,

This means that you cannot fill in a lot of the details required by the system. If the answer is YES : do not rate the horse. So not worry too much about remembering all the details as the majority of races are very straight forward and will not require much of what you have read.

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When you come across a race with 'awkward' form figures it is very easy to look up the relevant details in the guide. At the bottom of the details on the last race you will find a series of numbers that show the distances between the horses as they crossed the finishing line. You may have noticed that apart from fractions less than one, all this is doing is rounding the distances up or down to the nearest whole number.

That is really all there is to it. Note that mention of "Official Distance". This is usually shown as the word "dist" in the list of distances and basically means that the horse was beaten by a gap too large to accurately measure in lengths. If the horse was the winner of the last race then you should enter the first of the distances i. If the horse was 2nd, 3rd or 4th then you should count along the list of distances to find the relevant number before rounding off using the table.

NOTE: You should not add together the distances as you did before in this section. If the last race involved a disqualification in the current season only, then enter the distance as if no disqualification had taken place. For instance even if you promoted a 5th placed horse to 4th because it was within 2 lengths of the 4th placed horse see earlier you should still enter the distances of the 5th place.

In the event that this figure is not available then use the same distance as you entered for the last system request i. This rare occurrence can only happen when the remaining horses do not complete the race and is usually confined to National Hunt.

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In the Flat season there are only three types of race that should be considered lower class. These are:. In the Jumps season there are only three types of race that should be considered lower class. You should simply look for the appropriate words or abbreviations of them in the description of the type of race which will be found in the detailed form summary. This is asking for details on the race in form figure three. You can enter up to three letters in this section. They can be:. Since the race must have been either this season or last season the least you must enter is "C" or "L" but never both!

The other options will only occur occasionally and to find out if you should include them you should look in the following places. If it is a foreign course including Ireland then you should include a "F". If the horse's age is three look at the age in the current race card and it is having it first race of the season then you should include a "T".

If it is a two year old race then enter "O" for every horse you are rating. For example, if the last race was in the current season and took place at "Longchamp" in France and the horse was a three year old you would enter "CF or "FC". If the last race took place last season at Ayr and that was the horse's two year old season, if this was its FIRST race this season you would enter "LT" or "TL" its first race as a three year old.

If it was not its first race this season you would enter just "L".

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This must always agree with the race in form figure three and the race you have studied in the last section. With the majority of races you simply enter the difference between the two values in lbs 14 pounds to a stone. For instance, if today's weight is i. If today's weight is i. Unfortunately, this is not as simple as that because there are several factors that you must watch out for when calculating the weights. In the majority of Handicap races, the weight published against the horse on the race card is the correct one. However there are special officials called Handicappers who look at the past performance of a horse and give it a certain weight allowance in order to give each horse an equal chance.

The better horses are made to carry more weight than the inferior ones. Sometimes, the horses taking part in a race must carry a minimum weight. This is usually set in the entry conditions but remember that the minimum weight is 7 stone 7 lbs for a flat race and 10 stone for a race over jumps. If a horse's handicap weight does not reach this minimum then weights are added to make it up to this figure. This will be printed at the bottom of the race card. Note that is nothing to do with the jockeys weight. If you find these on the bottom of a race card then I am afraid that you will have to do a little bit of maths.

Do not worry. It is the only time in the system that you need to! You should apply the following 'equation' to any horse that has a Long Handicap Weight to calculate the weight difference.

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Remember that you should work out the values in the brackets first 14 lbs to a Stone :. When a horse is ridden by an apprentice jockey a weight allowance is given to make up for the riders lack of experience. This shown as a number in brackets appearing after the jockeys name.

If no number is present then assume the jockey is experienced. For instance the weight difference may be "M12" but the jockeys allowance is "5" the actual entry would be "M7" Compare the full current race weight against the full previous race weight. This means that you should add any apprentice allowance shown in brackets after the jockeys name in the details on the last race to the previous weight before calculation.

Look at the list of previous wins for the total number of times that the horse has won at today's racecourse irrespective of distances. For example if the race was at Newbury you should look for ALL wins the horse has had in the past at Newbury. Not that the letter "C" after the horse's name in the race card is often used to show that it has had a course win but make sure that the paper you are looking at uses this convention as it may mean something completely different! You should still check the win list to find the number of wins.

Note that in the Jumps season you should enter hurdle and Chase wins combined i. TOTAL wins. If the horse has never won at the racecourse then the next question will not be asked:. This time check the list of previous wins for mention of wins that took place on today's course AND over the same distance as today's race but do not include wins from the other season. For instance, if a horse is competing today at Newmarket over 7 furlongs and a previous win was at Newmarket over 7 furlongs then that counts as ONE "Course and Distance" win.

Note that the letters "CD" appearing after the horse's name in the race card are often used to show that it has had a course and distance win but as mentioned before you should make sure that the paper is following this convention. Watch out for the letters "C" and "D" appearing separately but next to each other. We mentioned earlier that the racing newspapers print a list of the top jockeys and trainers on the courses that are holding race meetings that day. The list shows the number of wins that the jockeys have had over a period of years.

You are being asked to enter the number of wins that the jockey who is riding the horse today has had at the course. However as you have already found out, these things are not as simple as you may think. If it appears make a note of the total wins printed there. If the name does not appear then assume "0" wins. Now this is out of date. Ideally you need a list of the top jockeys from the end of last season. If you don't have this then the only other source is the statistics page from the Racing Post. This is fine when well into the season but not a lot of cop near the beginning, especially on the Flat when all the stats are from the All Weather.

If it appears outside the top twenty or does not appear at all then give the jockey the actual number of wins they have had on that course. Whichever is the greatest. Our Coding Talent and our Betting Experience are our most prized assets. They are yours to use to achieve your goals. G2M - Monthly Plan is a great plan if you want to pay monthly recurring payment - cancel at any time.

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It will appeal strongly to those who wish to make a real hobby of football forecasting and investing. The study of winning and losing sequences can be very helpful, and good forecasts can be made from them when a system of team grading is also used. What it is, and what methodical backers will appreciate about it, is a plan to give investors the chance of regular winning without ever standing much risk of losing.

In spite of what I have said about the fallacy of losing sequences,I dare say that there will still be many backers who will at least feel happier if they only bet whenever they feel that a losing run is about to come to an end. It is generally accepted that two heads are better than one, and it may well be that four are better than two.

I hesitate to say that it is an easy thing to win money at the dogs but, nevertheless, there are sensible ways of setting about it and of course, there are ways that are not very sensible. A fascinating glimpse into the chances of success if backing every dog in a race. There are some serious methods which are designed to show a return on every race, and also to show a long term profit. These various methods of backing every dog in the race, either in the forecast or in the win or place markets, or in some combination of the three all have a similar objective: the elimination of the losing run.

There are two facts about greyhound racing which always stick in my mind. The first is that about seven favourites in ten are beaten. The second is that the newspaper experts can usually name at least two winners per meeting. The first fact should be sufficient warning to anyone of the futility of blindly backing favourites just because they are favourites. Even though elaborate staking plans may be applied, that game is rarely worth the candle. When I set myself the task of discovering a really perfect system I determined not to give up until I had worked out a plan as near to perfection as possible both in regard to the selection method and the method of staking.

I had an ideal in mind: the plan must give long winning runs and a minimum of losing bets, the staking must be simple, automatic and fool proof and also well within the means of everyone; there must be no complications, no listing or tedious study. Are you a backer who is making the best of it?

You know what I mean, just muddling through somehow, neither winning much nor losing much. There are lots of backers in that position. They have a system perhaps that is not too bad. Sometimes it wins well and other times it doesn't. But somehow they won't desert the system because at least it wins sufficiently well on average to guarantee that losses will not be heavy even if profits are not very abundant.

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A Horse Racing System Based on a Statistical Approach to Selection and Staking : Horse Racing Selection and Staking Based on Statistical Analysis. 1% off. Editorial Reviews. About the Author. The Author has been involved in horse racing for a long Buy A Horse Racing System Based On A Statistical Approach To Selection And Staking: Read 4 Kindle Store Reviews - zyfalycigiko.cf

This document is intended to appeal not to any one section of backers, but to the vast majority whose betting interests are many and varied. Here are few Golden Rules that are the result of many years of practical experience. THE beginner at systematic betting often wonders about form. Some of his pals might say that form does not really work out convincingly, but others take a different point of view. What are the facts? Only an analysis of a large number of races can possibly supply the answer. Of course you would play safe. And because backers bet in small stakes on longshots is the reason why they are so often regular losers The aim of this new service is to deliver the best football value bets available among more than 40 bookmakers concerning the main European leagues.

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